The Climate Question · Investigation · 1969–present
Who funded the doubt?
A settled question still feels open — and that gap was designed and paid for. The industry's own scientists knew; the strategy memos leaked; the money has been counted. The tobacco playbook, reused on climate.
FACT
§2 · Thesis
You don't have to win the science — you only have to make it look unsettled. That is a tobacco-industry strategy, reused on climate, on the record.
This is the hub's spine: the reason the other four pages had to be written at all.
On the record
“Doubt is our product, since it is the best means of competing with the body of fact that exists in the mind of the general public.”
— Brown & Williamson tobacco memo, 1969 — the method later reused on climate (Oreskes & Conway, Merchants of Doubt)
§5 · Graded Claim
Exxon's own scientists accurately projected global warming (1977–2003, ~0.2C/decade) — then the company spent decades publicly denying that science.
FACT
A 2023 Science study found Exxon's internal models were accurate, often more skillful than academic/government models. Lead author: modeled with 'shocking skill and accuracy,' only to deny it.
§5 · Graded Claim
The API's secret 1998 plan set out to sell the public 'uncertainty': 'victory will be achieved when average citizens recognize uncertainties in climate science.'
FACT
A primary leaked document, drafted months after Kyoto — a multi-million-dollar plan to reach the public, media, and teachers with the 'uncertainty' message. Disowned once exposed; the template stuck.
§5 · Graded Claim
An industry coalition's own experts privately confirmed the science was solid while it publicly fought action.
FACT
The Global Climate Coalition's advisers told it (mid-1990s) that human-caused warming could not be refuted — advice it stripped from public materials while casting doubt. Revealed by the NYT (April 2009). Full citation on the page.
The number
~$900M/yr
flowed to the U.S. climate counter-movement (~91 orgs) in the period Brulle (2014) studied — increasingly through pass-throughs (Donors Trust) that hide the source, so it's a floor, not a ceiling.
Brulle (2014), Climatic Change (Drexel)
§5 · Graded Claim
The denial effort was funded at scale and its fingerprints deliberately erased — as ExxonMobil/Koch scrutiny grew, money shifted to untraceable pass-throughs.
FACT
Brulle's peer-reviewed study (2014, Climatic Change) put the counter-movement at ~$900M/yr; the concealment via Donors Trust/Donors Capital is itself part of the story. Figures are floors because the money is hidden by design.
Declassified
We document the campaign, its intent, and its funding — not a precise count of minds changed, and not a charge against every good-faith skeptic.
§7 · Why it matters now
The reason the other four pages exist.
That it's man-made, already stressing ecosystems, not too expensive to fix, and that the objections to solar and wind mostly don't hold — all settled or answerable for years. The only reason those pages are necessary is that a great deal of money was spent making sure you'd still think of them as open. That is the hub's real subject, and Black Book Audit's: not just what's true, but who profits from keeping you unsure of it.
▸ The Climate Question →
▦ Ledger gaps
Help us fill these lines.
- OpenThe full, current dollar total — unknowable while the money moves through untraceable pass-throughs.
- OpenThe overlap map: which specific think tanks and individuals ran both the tobacco and climate doubt campaigns.
Help fill these →